The authors do a good job of exposing the poorly run polling system in Chapter 12. While I don't think polls are a bad idea, I definitely agree that the current system could be vastly improved and probably needs to be completely reformed. If the BCS is going to include human polls in their system, they must do a better job of making the guidelines clear to each pollster and making sure the pollsters are actually closely following the season. Anything less is an insult to the sport, the universities and the fans.
While it theoretically makes sense for the coaches to vote and have a say in judging the nation's best teams, the reality is the opposite. The thinking goes that since these guys are coaching the sport and in charge of building the best teams in the country, who would know more about football than them. While the assumption that they know more about football is probably true, the assumption that they then take the time out of their limited week to study all of the other teams and then judge and rank the teams is simply misguided. These coaches are in jobs where their time is very limited, and quite frankly, I wouldn't want the coach of my team studying the rest of the teams out there. I would bet most fans want their coaches focused on the next week's opponent, which is where a coach's focus should be, not on teams in other conferences that they won't be playing.
Not only should the coaches not be voting because it isn't the best use of their time, they also shouldn't be voting because of the obvious and inherent conflict of interest it creates. When push comes to shove in the final ballot of the season, coaches are going to rank their teams higher in hopes of getting to better bowls, bringing in more money, etc. Furthermore, they could unfairly rank other teams lower, maybe teams that are big rivals or teams that have treated the coach poorly in the past by firing them. In the constantly changing world of football coaching, the coaches themselves switch jobs so frequently that they are almost always linked to several schools in various ways. Who knows how that could affect their voting ways. It could very easily cloud their judgment when they are asked to impartially rate and rank teams. Why even approach this subject? The coaches poll should simply be eliminated.
It doesn't seem that the Harris poll is much better. While I haven't done thorough research into the background of each voter, they certainly aren't among the most well known people who cover college football. While this doesn't necessarily mean their votes are invalid, it does speak to the credibility of the poll when viewed by the public. Fans are going to trust more widely-respected people like Chris Fowler and Stewart Mandel with ranking the nation's best teams, not no-names like Robert Gagliardi and Hugh Yoshida. Maybe these guys watch every game every week, but more needs to be done to reassure the public that these voters are the right people to be casting program-changing votes when a lot of money is at stake.
I don't know what the answer is and I don't know if anyone does. I don't know if 2 polls are even necessary if one poll can be administered correctly and include well educated voters. Each voter needs to have access to view every game, and must be held accountable to make sure they at least watch each game that includes a top 15 team. Another key element which should be included is judging losses independent of date. Historically, teams are penalized more when they lose late in the season because they don't have games left with which they can climb back up in the polls. When teams lose early in the season, they have time to gain ground in the standings. There are probably many other changes to be made, but the first thing that needs to happen is the BCS needs to realize that the voting system can be improved upon. Thanks to the authors for bringing this matter to light.
I think this is the most interesting and relevant problem in college football today. One solution to the coaches poll is to give all the coaches a vote. Bias can cancel out bias, at least in theory. Still not perfect as conferences are not all the same size, so this would give the MAC the most influence in the coaches poll. They could simply instruct their coaches to vote a certain way, and who knows, they might do it.
ReplyDeleteThe biggest problem is no human poll can eliminate bias. Coaches, fans, media folks...all have a vested interest somewhere. There is no truly independent human poll you could have. No matter how you spin it, you're going to get bias.
The best solution is to follow the computer model. They have 6 computer rankings but only 2 human polls in the BCS system. Talk about crazy. The one with more opportunity for bias is given way more weight.
I believe there should be a poll of all the coaches, a players poll, a journalist poll, a scouts poll, and a media poll. More in depth on what those are in my soon to be published post.